Here is a question that Canadians are now asking themselves.
When Donald Trump gets worked up about his neighbours to the north, as he seems to do most days as US president, will he refer to the new leader of Canada’s Liberal Party – and the country’s incoming prime minister – as “Governor Mark Carney?”
Mr Trump has taunted Canada’s outgoing leader Justin Trudeau by referring to him as “Governor Trudeau” and riled the rest of the country’s 40 million inhabitants, by calling it “the 51st state”.
Image: File pic: Reuters
Yet it is going to be harder to ruffle the feathers of a seasoned technocrat who led Canada through the financial crisis as head of its central bank, before navigating the shock waves caused by Brexit as the governor of the Bank of England.
For Canadian liberals, this is the attraction.
Carney is emotionally contained with deep experience in finance and public service – a man who might as well have the word “expert” tattooed on his forehead – and they have decided to send him into battle against not one, but two, folksy populist leaders.
When Mr Carney is sworn in as prime minister over the next couple of days, he will face immediate pressure to call a federal election. At this point, he will have to contend with the pugnacious leader of the Conservative Party, Pierre Poilievre.
A career politician, Mr Poilievre has tapped into voters’ post-pandemic frustrations over unaffordable housing, the cost of living, and environmental taxes. In the process, he built a healthy 20-point lead in the opinion polls.
But his populist style, which borrows more than a little from Donald Trump, has proven something of a turn-off. The latest surveys suggest most Canadians would prefer Mr Carney to negotiate with the US president.
Still, the former Bank of England chief has never run for anything in politics. In fact, he isn’t a member of parliament, and most people agree that he is not much of a people-person.
If he is going to take on Mr Trump in a full-on trade war, he will need to bring his people with him.
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Can he do it?
His acceptance speech for the Liberal Party leadership sounded like an electoral call-to-arms.
“America is not Canada. And Canada never, ever will be part of America in any way, shape or form,” he said.
“We didn’t ask for this fight, but Canadians are always ready when someone else drops the gloves.” (Dropping your gloves in ice hockey being a sign you’re willing to fight.)
They are combative words, and they reflect the fact that party members were also handing him another high-profile assignment: saving the nation.
Image: Donald Trump and Justin Trudeau in 2017. File pic: Reuters
Trump’s tariffs of 25% on Canadian exports to the US would be devastating for the Canadian economy. If implemented in full, officials have predicted up to a million job losses could result.
But the threat, which Carney would have to manage, is not just economic. Based on phone calls with Trump and his officials, Mr Trudeau said Washington is serious about trying to annex Canada, even calling into question the territorial boundary which divides the two countries.
Until now, Mr Carney has said little about how he would try to tackle the US president, but in his speech, he said Mr Trudeau’s approach of retaliatory actions would remain.
“My government will keep our tariffs on until the Americans show us respect,” he warned.
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In this age of populism, the Canadian Liberal Party has decided on a man with professorial airs to tackle Donald Trump – a decision that may well be confirmed at the next national election.
A reckoning awaits, and the future of Canada – a member of NATO and the G7 – could well depend on it.
